China likely to have standards for post-quantum cryptography in 3 years, expert says

China is building its own path on post-quantum cryptography — and the expert backing that push is no marginal figure.

Wang Xiaoyun, the Tsinghua University cryptographer who helped break the MD5, SHA-0, and SHA-1 hash functions that underpinned a generation of internet security, told Reuters this week that China will likely finalize national standards for post-quantum cryptography within three to five years. Her framing: a potential "explosive growth" period for migration, not a hard deadline. But the direction is clear.

The technical approach is the story within the story. While the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology spent years evaluating and last year finalized post-quantum cryptography standards based on algebraic lattice mathematics, Chinese researchers have bet on "structureless lattice" algorithms — specifically citing one called S-Cloud+. Wang's argument is that algebraic lattice approaches "have some degree of security degradation," while structureless algorithms "basically do not have this problem." Whether that claim holds up matters: NIST picked lattice-based algorithms for a reason, after an intensive multi-year evaluation process involving hundreds of researchers worldwide.

This isn't just an academic disagreement. China last year issued a global call for new standards — a direct challenge to NIST's process. Last month it released a homegrown quantum operating system as open source. The new five-year plan, finalized last week, elevated quantum technology to a "core future strategic industry" alongside embodied AI, nuclear fusion, and brain-computer interfaces. Finance and energy are priority sectors for migration, Wang said, given the sensitivity of the data at stake.

The geopolitical backdrop is the "harvest now, decrypt later" threat: adversaries including China and the U.S. are believed to be intercepting encrypted communications today to decode once sufficiently powerful quantum computers arrive — what the field calls Q-day. A Canadian cybersecurity firm's February briefing to the U.S. Defense Information Systems Agency, obtained by Reuters, warned Q-day could arrive as soon as this year. Other researchers push that timeline to mid-century.

Either way, the migration clock is running. The U.S. aims to complete industry-wide post-quantum migration by 2035. South Korea has a 2025–2028 pilot targeting energy and healthcare, with full rollout by 2035. Google and other tech companies have urged governments to accelerate adoption.

What's less clear is whether the Chinese standards, when they arrive, will be compatible with anything the West builds — or whether Beijing is deliberately constructing a separate cryptographic infrastructure. That divergence would be the more consequential outcome than the three-to-five-year estimate.

The Reuters report is here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-likely-have-standards-post-quantum-crytography-3-years-expert-says-2026-03-19/

For broader context, see Reuters' special report on the U.S.-China quantum race: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-china-tech-quantum/